Daily Picks: Tout's Dream, Bettor's Drain

Wanna know a secret? Buying picks one at a time will kill you; the juice is outrageous.

At the going rate of about $20, even a "pay-only-if-you-win" guaranteed pick costs a $110 bettor over 27% in juice. That's $10 to the bookie and $20 to the tout - and (10 +20)/110*100 = 27.2%. When you only win $80 when you win and lose $110 when you lose, your tout would have to hit almost 58% winners just for you to break even!

58% is a good year for a good handicapper. Touts that sell picks every day rarely do that well because they're too busy marketing their picks to focus on the handicapping. They also typically force plays on TV type games because those picks sell better.

Do you know the average lifespan of a daily picks customer? About 4 weeks. Why?... that's about the length of time it takes to get their 1st credit card bill and give their head a shake.

So why do I have "Daily Picks"? Actually, usually I don't. When I happen to be betting on a stand alone game (and releasing it to my regular clients) I simply post it here. For those who want to buy a single pick, at least you know it's a real play, not just a trumped up "Game Of The _____" because it's Monday Night Football or something.

Think hard about the math of buying individual picks. For instance, last year my Football clients got over 200 plays in CFB and NFL combined. At 58% winners, a $110 bettor would pocket almost $1500 profit even after the $897 cost of the plan. A player who bought those plays one at a time would net exactly nothing. You would almost certainly be better served by finding a solid handicapper (like me?) and signing on for a season rather than spending money on picks one day at a time.

But until then...