The Times (and Lines) They are a Changing, part Deux
September 04, 2006

In a previous article we looked at comparing lines based on last year’s final ratings with this year’s CFB opening lines. Had you bet against the double digit moves, you’d have gone 4-1 ATS. Vandy, USC, Texas and Memphis all covered. The lone loser was La. Tech.

Let’s use the same process to analyze Week 1 in the NFL. More parity means smaller line moves so we’ll lower the criteria to differences of at least a TD. There are four games, with last year’s (LY) first and this year’s opening line (OL) second:

Miami @ Pittsburgh (pre-appendectomy) -14 (LY), -5 (OL)

Denver -11, -3 1/2 @ St. Louis

Seattle -15, -3 1/2 @ Detroit

San Diego -13, -2 1/2 @ Oakland

Again let’s use an example of a team’s last game for further illustration. The Steelers were 4 1/2 point fav’s in the neutral site Super Bowl. Throw in home field advantage, and they have opened as smaller fav’s over the Dolphins. No line value to be had by playing Miami, Rams, Lions or Raiders.

Reed Hogben M.D.